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Summary, 06.05.2020 - A new report from SST estimates that we can reopen large parts of Denmark now

TODAY'S BULLETS

  1. A new report from the State Serum Institute (SST) estimates that a wider reopening of Denmark is possible if we continue to keep social distancing and proper personal hygiene. The report concludes that the corona epidemic will die out in Denmark, even if we open up further.

  2. The most far-reaching scenario in the report concludes that many parts of society can reopen without having more than likely 500 hospitalised at once with covid-19, but a maximum of 1.000. See below for the full list.

  3. There is concern by the SST that the consequences of the first reopening phase have not been fully captured by the models yet. Therefore they cannot be sure if we in a week will see the numbers go up again.

  4. Wednesday night the party leaders convened at Christiansborg and started negotiations on Denmark's reopening - the so-called phase 2. The negotiations are based on the report from the SST, which assesses how Denmark can reopen.

  5. The SST has written in a note that it can be considered to raise the limit of people gathering in public space to e.g. 30 or 50 people in selected locations, like schools, restaurants and cafés.

  6. Although tourism-related sectors are suffering from the Corona crisis, the Minister of Justice rejects the re-opening of borders for the foreseeable future.

The impact on the amount of hospitalised in the largest scenario proposed / Foto: Statens Serum Institut

NEW REPORT FROM THE SST REGARDING FURTHER REOPENING OF DENMARK

  • A new report from the State Serum Institute (SST) estimates that a wider reopening of Denmark is possible if we continue to keep social distancing and proper personal hygiene. The report concludes that the corona epidemic will die out in Denmark, even if we open up further. However, the SST emphasizes that their model calculations are subject to considerable uncertainty.

  • Going into further detail, the SST estimates that we, with continued physical distancing and hygiene, can likely open the following without having more than 500 people admitted to hospitals with Covid-19 at once (but maximum 1.000):

- 6th-10th grade in elementary school,

- all retail shops,

- shopping malls,

- boarding schools,

- restaurants and cafés,

- zoos and botanical gardens,

- professional sport without spectators,

- all private businesses.


This does not, however, mean that the above places will necessarily reopen from May 10. It is still up to Mette Frederiksen and the government to make the final decision.


  • Basically, the report shows that if the Danes continue to keep physical distance, the health care system will be able to handle phase two. But there is concern that the consequences of the first reopening phase have not been fully captured by the models yet. Therefore they cannot be sure if we in a week will see the numbers go up again. The SST is therefore concerned about the consequences if we proceed to phase two too soon.

  • Regardless of which scenario you are looking at in the report, it will probably not lead to more than 500 patients admitted to hospitals nationwide, which is within the capacity of the healthcare system. Professor of Health Economics at the University of Southern Denmark, Jes Søgaard, therefore believes that the report shows that it is not necessary to keep large parts of society closed, but more crucial that the adult population adheres to the guidelines of distancing and hygiene than how much we reopen, he says.

  • In the scenarios put forward, where there is an assumed reopening of several societal functions, calculations show that the initial reproduction number will be upward trending by the beginning of July but will peak in August. The report also states that immunity among the Danish population remains relatively low, which can lead to a significant risk of another wave of the epidemic later.

  • There are major regional differences in how widespread Covid-19 is. Copenhagen is clearly hardest hit, while elsewhere in the country there is hardly anyone infected, opening up for the idea of regional differences in the extent of phase two of the reopening. The report continually emphasizes that compliance with physical distance and good hygiene is of utmost importance.

POLITICS AND ANNOUNCEMENTS

  • Wednesday night the party leaders convened at Christiansborg and started negotiations on Denmark's reopening - the so-called phase 2. The negotiations are based on the report from the SST, which assesses how Denmark can reopen.

  • Prior to the negotiations, the Prime Minister states that she would like to see all retail shops, restaurants and cafes opening again, as well as having the oldest pupils back to school (6th-10th grade), although they may not have a full school day yet. This might happen already from Monday next week. The Prime Minister would also like to see the best Danish football league, Superligaen, back on the pitch again, although without spectators.

  • In addition to organizing the next phase of the opening, the aim of the political negotiations is also to agree on a comprehensive plan for the subsequent phases. It should give the Danes insights into what will happen and the order it will happen in, says Mette Frederiksen.

  • The SST has written in a note that it can be considered to raise the limit of people gathering in public space to e.g. 30 or 50 people in selected locations, like schools, restaurants and cafés.

  • Although tourism-related sectors are suffering from the Corona crisis, the Minister of Justice rejects the re-opening of borders for the foreseeable future. Germany plans to re-open the borders with Denmark from mid-May.

  • The police have charged more than 400 people for violations of Covid-19 related laws from March 18 until May 1.

HEALTH-RELATED INFORMATION

  • 9.938 have tested positive, 117 more than yesterday (Expect large dark numbers since we haven't been testing everyone with symptoms from the start, ed.).

  • 209 are hospitalized, 19 less than yesterday.

  • Of those 209, 46 are in intensive care, 3 less than yesterday.

  • Of those 46, 41 are in respirators, 2 more than yesterday.

  • 506 Corona-infected residents in Denmark have died, 3 more than yesterday.

  • 270.680 have been tested for corona-virus (+12.942), with 9.938 positives (3.67 % positives), a drop of 0.14 %-point from yesterday (We are testing more, so we are also finding much more non-infected, ed.)

  • 7.493 are reported as healthy again, after having been hospitalized with corona-virus, 197 more than yesterday.



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